Information technology

Reboot

Indian outsourcing specialists must upgrade their strategies

信息技術(shù)

重啟

印度專(zhuān)業(yè)外包公司必須升級(jí)策略

COMPUTERS slow as they age, and before long must be replaced by newer models. Something similar is true of the business models of Indian IT firms. Specialised in running global companies’ outsourcedback-offices, the likes of Infosys, Wipro and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) used to be national champions growing at double-digit rates. Their prospects have dimmed of late［小詞活用］; an entire industry built on the back of globalisation is frettingabout［別老worry］the incoming American president. But Donald Trump is merely the latest［越晚越新，課上講過(guò)］threat to their operating systems.

計(jì)算機(jī)會(huì)老化變慢，必定很快就被新款電腦取代。印度IT公司的商業(yè)模式也有相似之處。專(zhuān)為全球企業(yè)提供外包后臺(tái)服務(wù)的印孚瑟斯（Infosys）、維布絡(luò)（Wipro）及塔塔咨詢(xún)服務(wù)（TCS）等公司曾是增速高達(dá)兩位數(shù)的國(guó)內(nèi)領(lǐng)軍企業(yè)，近來(lái)卻變得前景黯淡。整個(gè)行業(yè)都以全球化為根基，如今正因美國(guó)的新總統(tǒng)而憂心忡忡。但特朗普僅是該產(chǎn)業(yè)“操作系統(tǒng)”面對(duì)的一個(gè)最新威脅而已。

Over three decades, Indian IT has become a $140bn industry built on a simple proposition: rich-country companies could trim［別老decrease］ costs by getting tedious behind-the-scenes IT work done by cheap engineers in India. The Indian firms hoovered up bright graduates—the big three have over 700,000 employees in total—paying them starting salaries of $5,000 or so, a decent local wage. After gaining some experience, tens of thousands were dispatched to client sites in Europe or America, along with a few expensive local staff. The rest ensured their clients’ computer systems kept ticking over［小詞活用］ from cosy cubicles in Bangalore, Hyderabad and elsewhere.

在三十多年的時(shí)間里，印度IT業(yè)已成長(zhǎng)為價(jià)值1400億美元的產(chǎn)業(yè)。它建立在一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的理念之上：富裕國(guó)家把單調(diào)乏味的后臺(tái)IT工作外包給印度廉價(jià)的工程師完成，以此降低成本。印度公司吸納大量?jī)?yōu)秀畢業(yè)生——上述三大公司共雇用了70萬(wàn)名員工，起薪約為5000美元，就當(dāng)?shù)厮蕉允遣诲e(cuò)［別老good］的收入。在獲得一定的經(jīng)驗(yàn)后，其中的數(shù)萬(wàn)名員工會(huì)被派往客戶(hù)所在的歐洲或美國(guó)等地，配合一些薪金高昂的當(dāng)?shù)貑T工工作。其余人則留在班加羅爾、海德拉巴等地舒適的隔間里，確?？蛻?hù)的計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)作正常。

Growth spurts and stalls are nothing new for the trio, the most international of dozens of Indian IT firms (American and European companies such as IBM, Accenture and Capgemini have large Indian presences, too). Their prospects are ultimately tied to the sluggish rich-world economies of their clients: America makes up over half of Indian IT sales, Europe a quarter. Banks and insurance companies, the biggest customers, have been in penny-pinching

［詞匯翻譯］ mode of late; ditto同上/同前 energy companies struck by falling oil prices.

這三家公司是印度眾多IT公司中最國(guó)際化的（IBM、埃森哲和凱捷等歐美公司在印度也占有相當(dāng)大的市場(chǎng)份額），對(duì)它們來(lái)說(shuō)，增長(zhǎng)加速和受挫都是常事。其前景最終還是與客戶(hù)所在的富裕世界經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷相關(guān)聯(lián)：印度IT業(yè)的銷(xiāo)售額中，美國(guó)貢獻(xiàn)［別老用占字］了一半以上，歐洲占四分之一。行業(yè)最大客戶(hù)銀行及保險(xiǎn)公司最近已開(kāi)始精打細(xì)算，受油價(jià)下跌沖擊的能源企業(yè)也是如此。

But what felt like cyclical softness looks increasingly like it is being compounded by structural decline. Dollar-denominated growth rates have oscillated but clearly trended downwards and are now firmly in the single digits (see chart). Margins of over 20% are coming under pressure, even after a sustained fall in the rupee against the dollar increased the cost advantage of earning in America and paying staff in India.

但是，原本感覺(jué)上像是周期性的疲軟［詞匯翻譯］，如今越來(lái)越像是受結(jié)構(gòu)性衰退［詞匯翻譯］的拖累。以美元計(jì)算的增長(zhǎng)率震蕩不斷，但呈明顯下行趨勢(shì)，如今已穩(wěn)穩(wěn)保持在個(gè)位數(shù)水平（見(jiàn)圖表）。即使盧比兌美元匯率持續(xù)下跌，令在美國(guó)賺取收入而在印度支付薪酬的公司成本優(yōu)勢(shì)提升，20%多的利潤(rùn)率仍然受壓。

There is still plenty of the $900bn global IT services budget for them to capture. But some headwinds now look like they will endure. Mr Trump’s swearing-in is the most immediate concern. The incoming president has railed against certain visas for skilled workers, many of which are gobbled up by Indian IT firms to send staff on stints to America. A proposal to hike the minimum salaries to qualify for such schemes from $60,000 to $100,000 would make many postingsuneconomical.

全球9000億美元的IT服務(wù)預(yù)算中仍有大量空間供它們爭(zhēng)取，但貌似有些阻力會(huì)長(zhǎng)期存在。特朗普宣誓就職是最緊迫的問(wèn)題。這位新總統(tǒng)痛斥面向技術(shù)勞工簽發(fā)的某些簽證，其中許多被印度IT公司包攬，用以派遣員工赴美短期工作。一項(xiàng)提案要求把申請(qǐng)這類(lèi)簽證的最低工資從六萬(wàn)美元提升至十萬(wàn)美元，這將讓許多職位安排變得不經(jīng)濟(jì)。

That would mean replacing Indian expats to America with locals, especially if the cap for the number of new visas is lowered from the existing 65,000 a year. Add in higher visa-application fees for large-scale labour importers, and that might trim up to five percentage points from IT companies’ margins, analysts think. Fuzzy talk of an “outsourcing tax” will in any case hardly encourage［視角轉(zhuǎn)換］ IT procurement managers to look overseas.

這意味著美國(guó)當(dāng)?shù)厝藭?huì)取代赴美工作的印度人，特別是如果新簽證的限額從目前的每年65,000人再次下調(diào)的話。加上大型勞務(wù)輸入公司面臨的簽證費(fèi)用上升，分析師們認(rèn)為，IT公司的利潤(rùn)率可能會(huì)下降多達(dá)五個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。有關(guān)“外包稅”的揣測(cè)肯定也會(huì)令I(lǐng)T采購(gòu)經(jīng)理們打消海外計(jì)劃。

Changes in how clients think about technology is a bigger worry［寫(xiě)作句型］for Indian IT firms. Budgets globally are growing steadily, at about 3% a year reckons Gartner, a research outfit. But an increasing amount of the money is spent on trendy stuff like analytics or the internet of things. Such new “digital” services will rise from a tenth of total IT spending in 2014 to over a third in 2020 according to McKinsey, a consultancy.

客戶(hù)對(duì)技術(shù)的看法也在改變，這對(duì)印度IT公司來(lái)說(shuō)是更大的憂慮。研究機(jī)構(gòu)高德納公司（Gartner）認(rèn)為，在全球范圍內(nèi)，IT預(yù)算在穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，每年提升約3%。但有越來(lái)越多的資金花在數(shù)據(jù)分析或物聯(lián)網(wǎng)這類(lèi)新潮項(xiàng)目上。據(jù)咨詢(xún)公司麥肯錫的數(shù)據(jù)，這類(lèi)新“數(shù)字”服務(wù)在2014年占IT總支出的十分之一，到2020年時(shí)，該比例將上升至超過(guò)三分之一。

IT managers at big firms think they can finance the development of snazzy big-data projects and mobile apps by trimming spending in their existing IT infrastructure, for example by replacing their own data centres (which they pay Indian firms to maintain) with cloud storage (which they do not). And some of the tasks which engineers used to do, such as tailoring software for a client, can now be done by machines. It seems that workers in India’s vast code-writing centres are as much at risk of being made obsolescent by automation as those in factories making cars or shoes.

大公司的IT經(jīng)理們認(rèn)為可通過(guò)減少現(xiàn)有IT基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的開(kāi)支來(lái)為新潮的大數(shù)據(jù)項(xiàng)目及移動(dòng)應(yīng)用開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目提供資金，例如用云存儲(chǔ)（沒(méi)有外包給印度公司維護(hù)）取代自有數(shù)據(jù)中心（外包給印度公司）。而以前工程師們做的一些工作，如為客戶(hù)定制軟件，現(xiàn)在可由機(jī)器來(lái)完成。印度那些龐大編程中心的員工似乎也面臨被自動(dòng)化淘汰的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，與制造汽車(chē)和鞋子的工廠工人并無(wú)二致。

Indian firms want to get in on the new digital action, which they think is less likely to be commoditised. But they specialise in fixing problems cheaply, not driving innovation. Devising a mobile-banking app for millennials, say, is a far cry from［別老different］parsing lines of code for bugs.The IT firms know they need to adapt. “We will not survive if we remain in the constricted space of doing as we are told, depending solely on cost arbitrage,” Vishal Sikka, the boss at Infosys, wrote in a recent letter urging staff to shape up.［別老adapt］ “If we don’t we will be made obsolete by the tidal wave of automation and technology-fuelled transformation that is almost upon us.”

印度公司希望打入這股數(shù)字化新潮流，認(rèn)為相比之下它不大會(huì)變得大宗商品化。但它們的專(zhuān)長(zhǎng)在于以低成本解決問(wèn)題，而非推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，為千禧一代設(shè)計(jì)移動(dòng)銀行應(yīng)用跟分析代碼查找錯(cuò)誤完全是兩碼事。這些IT公司知道它們需要適應(yīng)新趨勢(shì)?！凹偃缥覀冞€局限于聽(tīng)命他人，只依賴(lài)成本優(yōu)勢(shì)，我們將無(wú)法生存?！?印孚瑟斯的老板史維學(xué)（Vishal Sikka）在最近一封敦促員工升級(jí)的信中寫(xiě)道?！霸谧詣?dòng)化和科技的推動(dòng)下，變革浪潮滾滾而來(lái)，我們不去適應(yīng)就會(huì)被淘汰。”

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Others have a head start in the race to the sunlit digital uplands. Accenture has digital-services revenue per employee around four times its Indian rivals, points out Vaibhav Dhasmana of Jefferies, a bank. It derives more than a fifth of its revenues from such work. Most Indian firms don’t break out this figure, somewhat tellingly, but it is thought to be in the 10-17% range.

正在升級(jí)，請(qǐng)稍候

數(shù)字化高地陽(yáng)光燦爛，在奔往那里的競(jìng)賽中，其他人領(lǐng)先一步。杰富瑞銀行（Jefferies）的瓦伊巴夫·達(dá)斯馬納（Vaibhav Dhasmana）指出，埃森哲員工的數(shù)字服務(wù)人均銷(xiāo)售額約為其印度競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的四倍。該公司有超過(guò)五分之一的收入來(lái)自這類(lèi)工作。比較顯而易見(jiàn)的是大部分印度公司都達(dá)不到這一水平，不過(guò)估計(jì)它們的占比處于10%到17%的范圍之間。

European and American rivals have heftier consulting arms that can shape companies’ spending. They are eager acquirers of companies, often boutiques that give them skills they cannot develop internally. They spend more on research and development, too: 2% of revenues for Accenture, compared with a mere 0.5-1% of revenues at Indian firms. All this reduces profits: Accenture has margins on earnings before interest and tax of around 15%, not much more than half what Indian firms have traditionally secured.

歐美競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手擁有更強(qiáng)有力的咨詢(xún)服務(wù)部門(mén)，能夠影響公司的支出。它們熱衷收購(gòu)，對(duì)象往往是一些精品公司，能帶來(lái)無(wú)法內(nèi)部開(kāi)發(fā)的新技術(shù)。它們也在研發(fā)上投入更多：埃森哲的投入是其營(yíng)收的2%，相比之下，印度公司的該比例僅為0.5%到1%。所有這些都令利潤(rùn)下降：埃森哲的息稅前利潤(rùn)率約為15%，充其量不過(guò)是印度公司傳統(tǒng)上穩(wěn)賺的一半。

The Indian firms are moving in this direction. All have invested in “platforms” they can sell to more than one client—for example, to analyse social media. But by their own admission progress has been limited. Pivoting towards higher-value offerings requires an overhaul of Indian companies’ past models, not a tweak. The focus must now be on the quality, not the quantity, of employees. Hiring has slowed: in the nine months to end-December 2016, Infosys added 5,700 new staff, compared with 17,000 in the same period a year ago. There are fewer junior engineers—able only to carry out the most routine tasks—and more relatively senior staff as a result (see chart). This middle-age bulge in staffers increases staff costs by 5-7%, says Anantha Narayan of Credit Suisse, a bank.

這一切發(fā)生時(shí)，印孚瑟斯和維布絡(luò)正在適應(yīng)新一代的管理者，這些職業(yè)經(jīng)理從公司創(chuàng)始人的手上接管了企業(yè)。同時(shí)，1月12日，塔塔咨詢(xún)服務(wù)公司備受尊敬的老板陳哲（Natarajan Chandrasekaran）離任，出任母公司董事長(zhǎng)。將印度IT業(yè)塑造成誘人事業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式正在褪色，而不是完全消失。但和計(jì)算機(jī)一樣，最好在舊機(jī)器意外崩潰前就把它換掉。